Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Deal on Rare Earth Minerals
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Prior to the meeting, Zelensky had shown optimism, suggesting this «initial» agreement might lead to expanded collaboration. However, he acknowledged that Ukraine still needed to obtain security assurances from the US, which was a major point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to «recover their funds» from the assistance given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that European nations should primarily handle Kyiv’s security needs.
What Conditions Are in the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft version of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. The arrangement proposed the establishment of an «investment fund» aimed at aiding Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal noted that the fund would be jointly managed by both countries on an «equal footing.» As per the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future income from state-controlled mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. These funds would then be put toward projects focused on improving Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.
Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.
Trump has emphasized the financial aspect, stating on Tuesday that the US has provided between $300 billion and $350 billion in aid to Ukraine and that a minerals deal could help recover these funds. However, the Kiel Institute, a German think tank, estimates that actual US assistance amounts to $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.
«Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,» Zelensky commented.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: «I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.»
Even though there are no direct security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security assurances to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide «automatic security.»
The concept of a minerals agreement was originally introduced by Zelensky as a means to provide the US with a tangible incentive to continue supporting Ukraine. Trump has suggested that, in exchange for mineral access, Ukraine would secure the «right to continue fighting» and that the US would keep supplying military equipment and ammunition «until a deal with Russia is reached.»
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
When Is the Agreement Expected to Be Signed?
Trump initially mentioned that the agreement would be finalized at the White House meeting on Friday. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal affirmed that a definitive version of the deal was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was intended for signing.
However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was «gambling with World War Three.»
«You need to make a deal, or we’re out,» Trump reportedly told Zelensky. «You don’t have the leverage.»
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be «no compromises» with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.
Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having «disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office» and stating: «He can come back when he is ready for peace.»
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine possesses about 5% of the world’s «essential raw materials.» This encompasses roughly 19 million metric tons of verified graphite deposits, ranking Ukraine among the top five suppliers globally of this mineral, which is vital for manufacturing electric vehicle batteries.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.
A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
«These resources aren’t stored in a warehouse ready for delivery—they require development,» Mylovanov commented. «US investment could eventually be advantageous for all involved.»
What Has Been Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to «offer» mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s «new territories»—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia «certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.»
«Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,» he stated.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the circumstances are still evolving: «Whether [Ukraine and the US] will finalize this agreement or something else, remains to be seen. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.»
